The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropri...

This article uses seasonal integration and co integration techniques to test the hypothesis of neutrality of money, using data from the Iranian economy. Seasonal data for the three variables of money supply, output and prices show that (increase in) money supply and the price level are co integrated at zero frequency, but one does not see such a relationship between (increase in) money supply a...

The underlying assumption for using seasonal dummies in a regression is that the seasonality of the dependent variable is deterministic. Many economic variables show a regular seasonal pattern, with peaks occuring in the same season year after year. Such a regular seasonal pattern can also be a result of an integrated stochastic process. This paper examines some consequences of deterministic mo...

This paper examines types of cointegration for bivariate seasonal time series, namely seasonal cointegration, periodic cointegration and nonperiodic cointegration. The admissable form(s) for any cointegration is shown to depend crucially on the univariate unit root properties of the series. When both processes are (conventionally) integrated, only nonperiodic cointegration is possible. Periodic...

this article uses seasonal integration and co integration techniques to test the hypothesis of neutrality of money, using data from the iranian economy. seasonal data for the three variables of money supply, output and prices show that (increase in) money supply and the price level are co integrated at zero frequency, but one does not see such a relationship between (increase in) money supply a...

This paper discusses the estimation of fractionally integrated processes with seasonal components. In order to estimate the fractional parameters, we propose several estimators obtained from the regression of the log-periodogram on different bandwidths selected around and/or between the seasonal frequencies. For comparison purposes, the semi-parametric method introduced in Geweke and Porter-Hud...

the present research was planned to evaluate the skill of linear stochastic models known as arima and multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) model in the quantitative forecasting of the standard runoff index (sri) in karkheh basin. to this end, sri was computed in monthly and seasonal time scales in 10 hydrometric stations in 1974-75 to 2012-13 period of time ...

In this paper, to account for the effect of water stresses in the various growth stages under deficitirrigation, the multiplicative, seasonal and minimal approaches are integrated in the BUDGETmodel. To evaluate the model, the simulated yields for winter wheat (was grown in Sharif Abaddistrict) under various levels of water stress were compared with observed yields. The resultshowed, simulated ...

Testing the fractionally integrated order of seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots is quite important for the economic and financial time series modelling. In this paper, Robinson test (1994) is applied to various well-known long memory models. Via Monte Carlo experiments, we study and compare the performances of this test using several sample sizes.

• Traditional approaches, including Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, autoregressive and moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX) model, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, exponential smoothing models [including Holt–Winters model (HW) and seasonal Holt and Winters’ linear exponential smoothing (SHW)], state space/Kalman fi...